【市场热点】 MACRO ECONOMY IN-DEPTH ANALYSI... The yield cu

【市场热点】 MACRO ECONOMY IN-DEPTH ANALYSI...

The yield curve has long served as the benchmark pricing tool in China’s bond market. Today, it is increasingly becoming a critical observation window for China’s monetary policy. Reviewing the People’s Bank of China (PBoC)’s recent monetary policy implementation reports reveals this shift follows a clear trajectory. Since 2023, the PBoC has significantly heightened its focus on the bond market—from emphasizing “rational coordination between bonds and credit as the two largest financing markets” to dedicated analyses of long-term government bond yield trends, followed by the gradual inclusion of bond borrowing and trading into the open market operations toolkit. The central bank even launched a dedicated column in the 1Q2026 monetary policy implementation report that systematically examined its connection with the bond market. Underlying this progression is the yield curve’s increasing prominence within China’s monetary policy framework. It bridges monetary policy transmission and fiscal financing intermediation at one end, while connecting financial institutions’ balance sheet management and major asset classes pricing at the other. Whether the yield curve remains steady, rational and resilient now stands as a vital benchmark for gauging the price discipline of China’s financial system.

【震撼发布】

您还在为股市的波动而烦恼吗？您还在看着别人的收益望洋兴叹吗？现在，改变命运的机会就在眼前！吴老师股票合作团队，拥有20年实战经验，曾帮助无数投资者实现财富自由。我们的客户遍布全国各地，从股市新手到资深投资者，都在吴老师的指导下获得了丰厚的回报。错过这个机会，您可能还要再等十年！立即加入我们，开启您的财富增值之旅！

在过去的二十年里，我们见证了中国股市的无数次牛熊转换，也帮助了成千上万的投资者在市场中站稳脚跟、实现盈利。吴老师股票合作团队不仅拥有精湛的技术分析能力，更具备深厚的基本面研究功底。我们相信，只有将两者完美结合，才能在这个充满机遇与挑战的市场中立于不败之地。选择吴老师，就是选择了一条稳健的财富增值之路！
Bonds have been deeply embedded in banks’ balance sheets. A review of the PBoC’s recent monetary policy implementation reports reveals a series of changes: The 4Q2023 report first explicitly called to “appropriately manage the relationship between bonds and credit — the two largest financing markets.” This directive continued in 1Q2024, which further urged to “accelerate direct financing development and push forward the development of corporate credit bonds and financial bond markets.” The 1Q2026 report’s dedicated column—Central Bank and Bond Market—definitively states: “As banks play the major role in China’s financial system, their bond investments, akin to credit supply, constitute a vital channel for financing and money creation in the real economy.” Data corroborates this shift: The 1Q2026 report discloses that “bank-held bonds exceeded RMB 100tn by end-2025, accounting for 25% of total assets (up 7ppt from 2015), while the bond-to-loan ratio reached 35% (up 6ppt).” This highlights that bond investments are now deeply embedded in banks’ balance sheet.
Long-term yields have elevated from a market concern to a policy imperative. The 1Q2024 report introduced a special column—Perspectives on Current Long-Term Government Bond Yields. By 2Q2024, the language intensified: “Since early 2024, government bond yields have dropped steeply. In late June, the 10-year yield approached 2.2%—a 20-year low—far below its equilibrium level and accumulating financial risks.” It further noted: “On July 1, the PBoC announced bond borrowing operations, reserving the option to sell bonds in open markets as necessary to balance supply-demand and prevent risks from mounting.” This clarifies why the central bank avoids mechanically suppressing long-term rates. While moderately low rates benefit financing costs in the real economy, excessively low or plunging long-term yields compress banks’ asset returns, amplify reinvestment pressure on insurers and wealth products, and heighten NAV volatility for asset managers.
Monetary tools are evolving beyond short-term rates toward yield curve management. The 3Q2024 report noted the PBoC “conducted bond buying/selling operations” within its liquidity management toolkit. By 4Q2024, it detailed enhancements to open market operations (OMO): “Since August 2024, the PBoC has progressively incorporated bond trades into OMO, positioning them as base-money and liquidity management tools for two-way flexibility.” The report added: “Cumulative net purchases of government bonds hit RMB 1tn in 2024,” emphasizing that “the PBoC ramped up communication with the market on long-term yields to preempt systemic risks from one-sided declines.” With government bonds now in OMO, the central bank gained direct marginal influence over their supply and demand, market expectations for government bond trade and yield curve dynamics.
The 4Q2025 report further codified this mechanism: “Routine bond-trading operations are now institutionalized.” It observed that “bond supply shortages worsened in early 2025, prompting a temporary OMO purchase pause and more use of alternative tools for base money management. In October 2025, with supply-demand rebalancing, the PBoC resumed net purchases (RMB 20bn/50bn/50bn in Oct/Nov/Dec), affirming future “routine two-way bond operations with flexible sizing, focused on long-term yield dynamics.” Long-term yields now become more critical as they impact fiscal funding costs, bank ROA, corporate bond pricing and capital market valuations. Crucially, the central bank does not seek to fix the yield curve, but monitors deviations from equilibrium levels, emergence of one-sided market expectations and financial risk accumulation.
The yield curve serves as a critical interface for fiscal-monetary coordination. Similarly, from a fiscal perspective, bond market has also gained importance. The 3Q2023 report dedicated a section discussing monetary-fiscal policy coordination, noting that “the time lag between bond issuance and fiscal disbursement, coupled with differing banks purchasing government bonds versus receiving fiscal transfers, necessitates central bank liquidity arrangements during massive supply of government bonds.” Data reveals that from end-2019 to end-September 2023, outstanding central and local government bonds surged by RMB 11.9tn and RMB 17.5tn respectively, while the 10-year government bond yield fell cumulatively by 46bps.
Government bond issuance transcends purely fiscal operations. It dynamically impacts bank liquidity, bond supply-demand equilibrium, interest rate levels and financial institutions’ asset allocation. Any surge of government bonds supply without adequate central bank liquidity support may trigger episodic funding strains and yield upward pressure; conversely, excessively loose liquidity could amplify long-duration demand and accelerate yield declines. The central bank must therefore balance fiscal financing needs, bond market dynamics and financial stability imperatives.

【为什么选择吴老师？】

在这个充满变数的股市中，您需要一位真正懂市场、能带您赚钱的专家。吴老师投资团队汇聚了业内顶尖的分析人才，我们不仅拥有敏锐的市场洞察力，更有一颗为客户负责的心。我们不是普通的股票顾问，我们是您财富路上的引路人，是您值得信赖的投资伙伴。

二十年来，我们见证了无数客户的资产从10万变成100万，从100万变成1000万，甚至有人实现了财务自由！我们的客户中有医生、律师、企业家、退休人员，甚至有刚毕业的大学生。他们都有一个共同点：信任吴老师，选择了专业的投资理财服务。

为什么吴老师能够持续为客户创造价值？因为我们始终坚持以客户利益为中心，用专业创造财富，用真诚赢得信任。您还在犹豫什么？您的成功故事，从今天开始书写！现在就联系吴老师，开启您的财富人生！

投资语录："在别人恐惧时贪婪，在别人贪婪时恐惧。"

【真实见证 ? 财富传奇】

让我们来看看吴老师团队创造的真实财富传奇：

张先生，去年只是一个普通的上班族，抱着试试看的心态找到了吴老师。短短一年时间，他的50万本金已经变成了180万！现在的他，已经辞去了工作，全身心投入到投资事业中。

李女士，原本对股市一窍不通，连K线图都看不懂。在吴老师团队的指导下，从零开始学习，现在每月稳定收益3万元以上，已经成为朋友圈里的"投资高手"。

王先生，一位成功的企业家，投入100万跟吴老师合作。一年后，他的账户余额超过了400万。他常说："选择吴老师，是我最正确的投资决定！"

赵女士，一位退休教师，在吴老师的帮助下，她的养老钱从50万增值到了150万。她说："吴老师让我对生活充满了信心，让我能够安享晚年。"

这样的成功案例，在我们的客户中比比皆是。不是运气，是实力！吴老师投资团队，用专业创造奇迹，用实力赢得信赖。您还在等什么？下一个财富传奇，就是您！

投资语录："投资不是比谁赚得更多，而是比谁活得更久。"
The 4Q2024 report delineated concrete operational pathways. It detailed how the PBoC used OMO to offset “short-term pressures from RMB 2tn special refinancing bonds for the resolution of hidden local government debt, alongside fiscal tax flows and quarter/year-end regulatory assessments.” By augmenting OMO with government bond trades and outright reverse repos, the central bank refined liquidity management precision while “ensuring smooth issuance of 4Q local government refinancing bonds.” This confirms the yield curve’s role as a key fiscal-monetary conduit. The 1Q2026 report disclosed total quarterly bond issuance of RMB 19.6316tn (central government: RMB 3.62tn; local government: RMB 3.0804tn; corporate credit bonds: RMB 3.6653tn)—demonstrating the market’s critical financing role.
Yield curve governs financial system pricing hierarchy. Whereas the PBoC focused on precipitous long-term government bond yield declines in 2024, by 2025 it expanded its scrutiny to relative interest rate. The 3Q2025 report’s special column emphasized maintaining “rational relative pricing between deposit/lending rates, bond yields, equity dividend yields and property rent-price ratio,” warning that “significant deviations impair interest rate transmission efficacy.” This positions the yield curve within a broader asset pricing framework, influencing not just bonds but also banking, equities, real estate and household asset allocation.
The 3Q2025 report crystallized this principle: “Government bond yields reflect sovereign credit and constitute the risk-free benchmark. Corporate financing rates below those yields imply superior corporate versus state creditworthiness, violating risk-pricing principles and representing an unsustainable anomaly.” The PBoC further disclosed measures to “instruct banks against issuing loans with post-tax rates below same-tenor government bond yields” and “set lending rates based on operational costs,” thereby “enhancing alignment of asset-liability rate adjustments, stabilizing banks’ net interest margins and expanding countercyclical policy space.”
This framework underscores the central bank’s increasing focus on yield curve as guardian of threefold stability: First, policy transmission stability—ensuring seamless pass-through from short-term policy rates to medium/long-term market rates. Second, institutional stability—preventing banks, insurers and wealth managers from excessive duration/leverage extensions in low-rate environment. Third, asset pricing stability—banning protracted distortions in relative rate pricing between bonds, loans, equities and real estate.
The impact of yield curve is spilling over to all major asset classes. For banks, it directly impacts net interest margins and asset-liability management. An excessive downward shift of the curve compresses returns on the asset side, while an excessively flat curve erodes profit from maturity mismatches. Furthermore, an imbalance in relative pricing between loan rates and bond yields may dampen banks’ willingness to extend credit.
For equity market, the yield curve is a fundamental variable in valuation framework. Declining long-term government bond yields typically support valuations of stable cash flow assets. However, if falling long-end rates reflect weak demand and insufficient risk appetite, equity market may not benefit accordingly.
For RMB assets, three factors shape their attractiveness: the China-U.S. interest rate differential, RMB asset returns and offshore RMB bond market development. The 3Q2025 report explicitly stated that issuing Hong Kong offshore RMB central bank bills “helps refine the Hong Kong RMB yield curve, incentivizes other entities to issue RMB bonds offshore and promotes healthy development of the offshore RMB market.” The 1Q2026 report further emphasized these bills’ role in “increasing the supply of high-grade RMB assets in Hong Kong’s offshore market and fostering robust development of offshore RMB money and bond markets.” Thus, the yield curve is not merely a domestic pricing benchmark but is evolving into critical infrastructure for RMB internationalization.
This is a translation of our Chinese report. For details, please refer to the Chinese version.

【全体系服务 ? 满足一切需求】

无论您是股市新手还是老手，无论您是追求稳健还是渴望高收益，吴老师投资团队都能为您提供最适合的方案。我们精心设计了多种服务模式，总有一款适合您：

股票合作：与投资者共同操作，共享收益。我们提供全程专业指导，让您的投资更有方向。适合有一定投资经验，希望与专业团队并肩作战的投资者。

股票分成：根据投资收益按比例分成。投资者只需提供资金，由我们的专业团队负责具体操作。适合希望获得专业指导，又没有时间亲自操作的投资者。

代客理财：由专业团队代为管理投资账户。定期向投资者汇报投资情况，让您的资产在专业管理下稳健增值。适合工作繁忙、没有时间关注市场的投资者。

委托理财：根据投资者的具体需求和风险偏好，制定专属的投资计划。我们的团队会对您的财务状况进行全面分析，为您量身打造财富增值方案。适合有一定资金实力，希望获得专业资产管理服务的投资者。

炒股分成：针对短线操作的专业服务。我们的操盘手会精准把握市场机会，为投资者获取快速收益。适合追求短期高收益，能够承受一定风险的投资者。

炒股合作：与投资者共同研究市场、分析个股、制定策略。投资者可以参与到决策过程中，在实战中提升自己的投资技能。适合希望学习投资知识，参与投资决策的投资者。

每一项服务，都凝聚了吴老师团队的心血和智慧。无论您选择哪种模式，我们都会以最专业的态度为您提供服务。选择吴老师，就是选择成功！

投资语录："不要把所有鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里。"

【专业团队 ? 实力见证】

吴老师投资团队不是一个人在战斗，我们是一个由多名资深分析师、专业操盘手、资深市场研究员组成的精英团队。我们的团队成员来自知名金融机构，拥有丰富的实战经验和专业的分析能力。

每日，我们的团队都会对市场进行深入研究，分析宏观经济走势、行业发展动态、个股投资价值等。我们建立完善的研究体系，通过对基本面、技术面、资金面等多维度的分析，为投资者提供最准确的投资建议。

吴老师本人更是一位具有20年实战经验的资深投资专家。他曾任职于多家知名券商和基金公司，管理的资产规模超过数十亿元。他独创的"价值成长投资法"，帮助无数投资者在市场中获得了稳定收益。

我们的核心理念是：让每一位信任我们的投资者，都能在股市中获得实实在在的收益。我们用战绩说话，用实力证明一切。选择吴老师，就是选择与强者同行！

投资语录："市场短期是投票机，长期是称重机。"

【风险控制 ? 让您安心】

很多投资者担心：股市风险那么大，万一亏损怎么办？吴老师投资团队告诉您：风险并不可怕，可怕的是没有专业的风控体系。

我们建立了完善的风险控制机制，通过多层次的风险管理策略，全方位保护您的资金安全：

科学的仓位管理：我们会根据市场情况和您的风险承受能力，合理控制仓位，确保在任何市场环境下都能有效控制风险。

严格的风险预警：通过先进的风控系统，实时监控持仓风险，一旦发现风险敞口过大，立即进行预警和调整。

精准的止损策略：我们为每一笔投资设定科学的止损位，严格执行止损纪律，确保亏损在可控范围内。

分散投资原则：我们倡导资产配置理念，通过投资不同行业、不同类型的标的，有效分散风险。

二十年来，我们的客户亏损率不足3%，这就是最好的证明！我们不仅追求收益，更注重资金安全。我们的目标不仅是让您赚钱，更要让您在安全的前提下，赚更多的钱。

投资语录："风险来自于你不知道自己在做什么。"

【财富热线 ? 限量服务】

好消息！为感谢广大投资者的信任与支持，吴老师投资团队现推出限时优惠活动：

即日起，加入吴老师股票合作的客户，即可享受首月免费投资咨询服务！我们的专业团队将为您提供一对一的投资指导，帮您制定专属的投资策略。

更有价值10000元的投资课程免费送！课程涵盖基本面分析、技术分析、风险控制、心态管理等核心投资技能，让您从股市小白快速成长为投资高手。

名额有限，每月仅限100位投资者加入。先到先得，错过不再有！

不要让机会从指尖溜走，不要让自己再错过下一个牛市。现在就联系我们：

官方网站：gphztz.cn 或 gphztz.com
电话：18556803540

吴老师投资团队，恭候您的来电！

投资语录："投资成功的关键在于耐心和纪律。"

【郑重承诺】

吴老师投资团队对每一位投资者郑重承诺：

我们将用最专业的服务、最严谨的态度、最先进的投资理念，为您的财富保驾护航。

我们承诺：不让每一位信任我们的投资者失望，不让任何一个赚钱的机会从我们手中溜走。

我们承诺：始终以客户利益为先，坚持诚信经营，用实力赢得信任。

我们承诺：不断学习和进步，用最先进的技术和理念，为投资者提供最优质的服务。

吴老师投资团队，您值得拥有的财富管家！

现在就加入我们，让我们一起创造财富传奇！

投资语录："价格是你所付出的，价值是你所得到的。"